DARE CCM NOMINATE LOWASSA FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN 2015 IN TANZANIA ???

Posted  Sunday, March 22   2015 at  11:40

 the  citizen, tanzania

IN SUMMARY

CCM has a dilemma—whether to let Lowassa and his allies go ahead and win the presidency or eliminate him on technical grounds the same way it did with another former premier, Mr John Malecela, in 2005.

As the battle for the Kikwete Succession heats up within the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi, former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa is shaping up as the man to watch, so much so that the new development is threatening to tear apart one of Africa’s oldest political parties.

CCM has a dilemma—whether to let Lowassa and his allies go ahead and win the presidency or eliminate him on technical grounds the same way it did with another former premier, Mr John Malecela, in 2005.

To his political foes, Lowassa is a risky choice for president for one simple reason—he may take advantage of that position to take revenge on his rivals, considering what transpired in the infamous Richmond scandal.

Mr Lowassa himself has strongly denied claims that he harbours such intentions and insists that his resignation in February 2008 was designed to save the government and was all about taking political responsibility for events under his watch.

Given the extent to which Mr Lowassa’s candidacy divides the ruling party, the big question is whether his name can get past the Central Committee.

Mr Lowassa, once a political ally of President Kikwete, set up a ruthless campaign in 2005 that only earned him more political enemies. He was then forced to resign in February 2008 after a committee led by Dr Harrison Mwakyembe tabled the report on the Richmond scandal in Parliament.

After his dramatic resignation, political pundits thought his political career was dead in the water. But seven years later, Mr Lowassa has rejuvenated politically and commands support within the CCM’s National Executive Committee and General Congress.

The greatest fear within the ruling party is whether the Central Committee will eliminate the former premier for alleged violation of the party’s rules. Mr Lowassa is among the CCM cadres who were banned for a year in February, 2014 after he was accused of starting his campaign for the presidency ahead of the authorised time.

The ban, which Lowassa allies dismiss as a smear campaign to stop him winning the race, expired in February only to be extended by the Central Committee on the grounds that the final report was still not ready.

Speculation is rife within and outside the ruling party that Mr Lowassa will be eliminated by the Central Committee in much the same way Mr Malecela was pushed out in 2005.

Those who fear that the Central Committee will get rid of Mr Lowassa cite recent events within CCM—including the ban imposed on him, the attempt in 2011 to expel him from the party allegedly because of corruption and the rift reportedly growing between him and his former boss, ally and friend—President Kikwete.

In 2005, when Mr Lowassa strongly backed his friend President Kikwete, the two were dubbed Boys Two Men because of their strong political union that eventually enabled the current President to defeat all his key rivals within the ruling party.

Besides Mr Lowassa, there was Rostam Abdul Rasul Aziz—Tanzania’s second richest man, a media mogul and above all a politician—who was one of the brains behind the Kikwete victory within and outside the ruling party.

Mr Aziz was, among other things, responsible for planning and co-ordinating the strong media campaign against those viewed as possible threats to Mr Kikwete’s candidacy in 2005—including Dr Salim Ahmed Salim and former Premier Frederick Sumaye.

According to reliable sources, Mr Aziz was also responsible for seeking funds for Mr Kikwete’s campaign. African Analysis, which is published in London, claimed that Mr Aziz raised funds from Oman in March 2005 for Mr Kikwete’s campaign—allegedly in anticipation of lucrative tenders once the election was over.

Angered by these allegations, President filed a civil case in London on the grounds that his image has been highly tarnished by the article published by the magazine that was closely linked to Dr Salim. It is not clear what became of that case.

The political union between President Kikwete, Mr Lowassa and Mr Aziz came under fire by the Dr Mwakyembe-led committee which, besides implicating Mr Aziz as one of the forces behind the Richmond scandal, asked Mr Lowassa to assess the allegations levelled against him—and take appropriate action.

Mr Lowassa maintains that he did nothing wrong but chose to resign for the good of his party and the government.

Mr Lowassa says he is ready to tell his side of the story publicly should his rivals bring up the Richmond scandal as one of the key issues to block his candidacy. If he did decide to tell his version of the story, it would be the first time Tanzanians would find out exactly what happened.

Mr Lowassa’s camp worries about whether their candidate would pass the Central Committee’s test but it is willing to stage a fierce political battle within the National Executive Committee should the Central Committee drop him from the list of preferred candidates.

The National Executive Committee is superior to the Central Committee and that is why some of Mr Lowassa’s supporters believe attempts to eliminate their candidate would set off a titanic battle.

Some analysts within the party also warn that any unjustifiable elimination would lead to a political rift that would eventually cost CCM dearly ahead of the October 2015 election.

No sitting president in the past two decades has managed to influence the party during the process to pick the CCM’s presidential candidate, but there are those who believe that President Kikwete holds the veto in this year’s election.

In 2010, President Kikwete outsmarted his political rivals by planning and influencing the nomination of Dr Ali Mohamed Shein as the presidential candidate for CCM in Zanzibar

The preferred candidate then was the current Vice President of the Union, Dr Mohammed Gharib Bilal.

Will the Zuma-Mbeki drama come to Tanzania?

Mr Lowassa’s dramatic resignation, though celebrated by his political rivals and foes, marked the beginning of politics of hate, divisions and smear campaigns within the ruling party.

Mr Lowassa, who suffered humiliation the day the Richmond report was tabled in Parliament in February, 2008, is today a newly reborn force that is giving his political rivals a headache. A few days after his dramatic resignation, which set off a political storm, President Kikwete summed up what had happened as a political accident—and insisted that Mr Lowassa simply took political responsibility for the problem but that did not mean he was guilty.

It is not clear whether President Kikwete still believes that what happened to Mr Lowassa was just a political accident but, judging by what transpired within the ruling party under his watch after the 2010 general election, it is pretty obvious that President Kikwete’s political views on Mr Lowassa may have changed drastically.

What puzzles political pundits is how Mr Lowassa, a man written off by many after his dramatic resignation in 2008, bounced back with very strong political support within and outside the ruling party. Between 2008 and 2010, inviting Mr Lowassa as your guest of honour at any official function, especially involving fund raising, would have attracted the wrath of the general public—thanks to the Richmond scandal.

After his resignation, the biggest debate of the day was whether this was the end of Mr Lowassa’s political career or the beginning of it. Some analysts thought that it was too soon to dismiss the man who played a crucial role in sending President Kikwete to State House in 2005, while others said it was impossible for Mr Lowassa to bounce back because the so-called Richmond scandal had severely damaged his reputation— and presumably ended his political career abruptly.

But one analyst later on wrote in 2009 that those dismissing Mr Lowassa should take a close look at what was happening in South Africa, where Mr Jacob Zuma, a man who was forced to resign in 2004 after he was implicated in an arms scandal and rape accusations, bounced back three years later, defeating President Thabo Mbeki and conquering the soul of the ruling party—Africa National Congress (ANC).

Today, should Mr Lowassa succeed in his race to State House, it would be a replica of what happened in South Africa between Mr Zuma and Mr Mbeki. Mr Zuma, who was earlier dismissed and ruled out of active politics, fought hard to clear his name in the rape accusations. He then struggled with corruption allegations in relation to the arms scandal after his financial adviser, Shabir Sheikh, was jailed.

Reporting on the 2007 Polokwane victory, The Guardian (UK), summed it this way: “Jacob Zuma, the populist politician, humiliated President Thabo Mbeki with a sweeping victory in the election for leader of the governing African National Congress yesterday…Zuma, who survived a rape trial and his dismissal as the country’s deputy president by Mbeki over corruption allegations, took 60 per cent of the nearly 4,000 votes at the party’s national conference in a dramatic political comeback.

“His victory potentially opens the way for him to become South Africa’s next president at the 2009 general election if he is not blocked by a long-standing graft investigation. The vote amounted to a repudiation of Mbeki, a man who has dedicated his life to the ANC but who was seen as increasingly authoritarian, power hungry and out of touch with ordinary South Africans.”

How Mr Zuma rose from dust to become South Africa’s third post-apartheid president is story that has been retold in many narratives but could well be what is happening within the ruling party in Tanzania—especially where Mr Lowassa is concerned.